When Will the Toronto Condo Market Rebound? Here’s Why 2028 Is the Answer
TL;DR: Toronto’s condo market is expected to stabilize by 2026 and rebound by 2028. Supply currently sits around 6.5 months, well above the balanced range, but it’s expected to drop sharply after 2027. Prices are down about 7% year-over-year, yet downtown stability and shrinking pre-construction pipelines suggest a rebound is brewing.
Why Everyone’s Asking: “When Will Toronto’s Condo Market Rebound?”
If you bought a Toronto condo between 2018 and 2023, you’re probably not thrilled with where values have landed. In many buildings, prices have slipped back to 2018 levels — meaning you could sell today for what someone paid five or six years ago. For anyone who bought during those peak years, the frustration isn’t just about higher costs — it’s about watching your condo’s value stall while the rest of the market adjusts. The upside? Every market correction lays the groundwork for the next recovery — and this one’s already taking shape.
You could call it the hangover years — the sobering stretch after the 2021–2022 market high, when everyone realized the condo boom couldn’t last forever. But like any hangover, it passes.
As I said in “No One Wants to Buy a Toronto Condo? Perfect.”, the market isn’t broken — it’s just sobering up after a decade-long bender. This is the correction phase — the market’s detox before its comeback tour.
Here’s what’s really happening, what’s next, and when your equity starts breathing again.
Toronto’s Condo Market Hangover: 2018 Prices, 2025 Problems
If you bought a condo in 2014, you’re laughing. You’ve probably doubled your money and refinanced for a cottage by now. But if you bought between 2018 and 2022, you know the ride’s been bumpier than expected — even for Toronto.
After the pandemic spike, higher interest rates hit like a freight train. Condo prices slid from $820,000 in 2021 to $655,231 by September 2025 — a 6.9% year-over-year drop, according to the latest Q3 data.
Supply sits at roughly 6.5 months, well above the 3–4 months typically considered a balanced market. In the 905 region, inventory rose from 5 months to 6.5 in a year, dragging prices down 8.6% year-over-year to around $667 per square foot.
Downtown Toronto, however, is showing early signs of stabilization: months of inventory are steady year-over-year, and while prices dipped 7.5% to $933 per square foot, the pace of decline is slowing.
This isn’t collapse — it’s correction. The buyers who stretched in 2021 are getting a reality check, and the patient ones are about to be rewarded.
Pre-Construction: The Slow-Motion Crash No One Can Ignore
Developers are still pricing pre-construction condos around $1,200 per square foot, while resale sits under $900. That gap? It’s the size of a penthouse terrace — and it’s keeping buyers on pause.
Urbanation data shows GTA new condo sales dropped 75%, from over 23,000 units in 2021 to just 3,641 through Q3 2024. That’s not a cooldown; that’s a deep freeze.
Meanwhile, roughly 29,000 new condos are completing in 2024, one of the biggest years ever for deliveries, flooding the market with inventory and dragging resale prices down.
But those levels aren’t sustainable. Recent Q3 data shows new-build deliveries will stay high through 2027, then plunge by 2028 as today’s stalled pre-construction projects work their way through the system.
That’s the setup for a serious supply crunch — and the start of the recovery cycle.
If this chart were a movie, 2028 would be the sequel where everything finally makes sense.
What Happens When the Condo Conveyor Belt Stops Moving
Urbanation’s data makes it clear: the pipeline is running dry. After years of record building, Toronto’s condo machine is slowing — fast.
Between 2026 and 2028, completions are projected to drop nearly 60%. That’s fewer new listings, fewer investor assignments, and a whole lot fewer cranes in the sky.
And when the conveyor belt stops, the shelves empty out.
By 2028, today’s oversupply will have been absorbed — the leftover inventory from this “glut era” will be gone. Resale condos, once seen as the boring alternative, suddenly become the only game in town.
That’s when the market flips. Competition creeps back in. Sellers start holding firm on price again. And the buyers who played the long game finally get to breathe.
Location Still Rules — and Boutique Is Queen
Even in this sluggish market, the standouts are still standing tall:
Lofts in Queen West → still get multiple offers.
Boutique low-rises in Leslieville → still holding strong.
Glass towers in oversupplied pockets → sitting on the market like forgotten leftovers.
Buyers aren’t fooled anymore — they want character, walkability, and community. The winners in 2028 won’t be the tallest; they’ll be the most distinctive.
2028: The Year of Redemption
If 2024–2025 are the hangover years, 2028 is the glow-up.
Urbanation’s forecast shows GTA completions crashing from 30,000+ in 2024 to around 13,000 in 2028, while population and rental demand keep surging.
Less supply. More demand. Simple math.
That’s when the “I’ll wait for prices to drop” crowd starts panic-buying again. When interest rates ease into the 3% low to mid range, affordability returns, and so does confidence.
2028 is when Toronto condo owners finally get to check their property value without wincing.
The Rebound Recipe: How We Get There
Three ingredients, one comeback:
1. Rate Relief.
The Bank of Canada can’t keep rates this high forever. Once they cool to the 3–4% range, the buyer pool doubles overnight.
2. Supply Shortage.
Developers have slammed on the brakes. Less construction now = tighter inventory later.
3. Confidence Returns.
Markets move on mood before math. Once headlines flip from “buyers vanished” to “bidding wars are back,” momentum snowballs.
The Human Side of the Recovery
Here’s what all this actually means:
Bought in 2021? You’re probably underwater now — but by 2028, you should be back in the green. Keep your unit in shape and stay patient.
Buying in 2025? You’re catching the market near bottom. This is your 2017 moment all over again.
Investor sitting on the sidelines? Look for scarcity. Boutique and heritage-style condos will lead appreciation once supply tightens.
The condo market doesn’t reward panic. It rewards preparation.
Will Toronto’s Condo Market Rebound? Absolutely — and Here’s Why It Always Does.
Toronto has done this dance before. Every “crash” has turned into a comeback. The fundamentals haven’t changed: limited land, population growth, and a city people still want to live in (no matter how much we complain about it).
So yes — the market’s bruised. But it’s healing. And by 2028, the people who stayed calm through the noise will be the ones smiling at the closing table.
What To Do Right Now
If you already own, this is the time to upgrade your asset: fresh paint, smart lighting, new fixtures — keep it ready for its comeback moment. If you’re planning to buy, this market is a sandbox of opportunity. You can negotiate, compare, and actually think before you offer (remember thinking?).
Want to know where your condo fits into the 2028 rebound story? 👉 Let’s map it out.
I’ll run a custom condo rebound forecast using current TRREB and Urbanation data — so you can see exactly how your building, price per square foot, and timing fit into what’s coming next.
Book a strategy call with me — because waiting for the rebound is fine, but positioning yourself for it is smarter.
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Quick FAQ
When will the Toronto condo market rebound?
Most forecasts point to stabilization by 2026 and a strong rebound by 2028 as supply falls and rates ease.
Why are pre-construction condos still so expensive?
Developers are stuck with older financing and construction costs, but buyers have shifted to smarter resale opportunities.
Should I sell my 2021 condo now?
Not unless you have to. If you can hold through 2028, your equity story gets a happy ending.
Are boutique condos better investments?
Yes. Fewer units, stronger communities, and better resale value during both downturns and rebounds.
