February 2026 Toronto Real Estate Market Update: Hot Pockets, Cold Condos, and 100,000 Buyers Still Sitting on the Fence
Winter is finally loosening its grip on Toronto, and the market is doing what the season always does on the way out: thawing unevenly. Some spots are wide open, like freehold properties in the core fielding 19 offers. Others are still frozen solid, like the unstaged, overpriced one-bedroom condo sitting across the city collecting days on market. Same city, same month, completely different reality.
The mortgage renewal cliff everyone spent two years dreading has been downgraded to a hill. Prices are down year-over-year across the GTA. And yet, over 100,000 potential buyers are still on the sidelines. The conditions are there. The hesitation is not about rates or affordability anymore. It is about something harder to shake: uncertainty. Trade headlines, tariff noise, and the general unease of a market that has been "about to turn" for two years.
But February's data suggests the ice is already cracking. In Brampton, Mississauga, and Oakville, buyers stopped waiting and started moving. The thaw is uneven, but it is real.
According to TRREB's Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer, substantial pent-up demand exists in the GTA ownership market. Many are waiting for prices to stabilize and for positive developments on the trade front. Once both arrive, significant momentum in home sales is expected heading into the second half of 2026 and through 2027.
The GTA logged 3,868 home sales in February 2026, down 6.3% year-over-year, with an average selling price of $1,008,968, down 7.1% compared to February 2025. Condo sales declined 11.2% year-over-year and average condo prices dropped 8.9%. With roughly 20,000 new condo units expected to hit the market in 2026, near-term pricing pressure is not going anywhere. The longer view is more encouraging. Condo completions are expected to slow, and the GTA continues to absorb approximately 50,000 new residents each year.
What This Means Heading Into Spring 2026
February did not flip the market. But it drew a clearer line between what is moving and what is not. Freeholds in the right locations are seeing competition. Condos across the board are still fighting for attention. The regions that posted sales gains, Brampton, Mississauga, and Oakville, did so while prices kept falling, which tells you exactly what kind of buyer is coming off the sidelines right now: the value hunter, not the confident bull. Spring will tell us whether that expands into something bigger.
📍 GTA-Wide Snapshot: Caught Between Two Markets
New listings fell faster than sales in February, which on paper signals tightening. But the GTA average price just crossed back over $1,000,000 for the first time since last year, inventory is still sitting near five months, and days on market are up 25% year-over-year. This is not a tightening market. It is a market sorting itself out in real time.
Average Price (YTD): $992,965 (▼6.7% YoY)
Sales (Feb): 3,868 (▼6.3% YoY)
Active Listings: 19,314 (▼2.4% YoY)
MOI: 4.99 → Buyer-Leaning Market
Average Days on Market (YTD): 40 (▲25.0% YoY)
Condo Sales (YTD): 1,088 (▼11.2% YoY)
Condo Avg Price (YTD): $626,650 (▼8.9% YoY)
What this means: The GTA average crossing back over $1M is worth noting, but it is not a recovery signal. It reflects the product mix selling in February, more freeholds, fewer condos, more than it reflects any broad price recovery. Condo sales are down 11.2% and condo prices are down 8.9%. That drag is real and it is not resolving quickly with 20,000 new units still incoming this year. The freehold story and the condo story are moving in completely opposite directions right now, and the GTA average is doing its best to hide that.
📍 Toronto Snapshot: More Listings Gone, Less Room For Error
Toronto's numbers look relatively stable until you separate the product types. Freeholds in established neighbourhoods are generating multiple offers. Meanwhile the condo market, which makes up the majority of Toronto's resale volume, is sitting at nearly five months of inventory with sales down 11.7% year-over-year and prices off 8.4%. Those two realities are happening simultaneously, on the same streets, in the same month.
Average Price (YTD): $989,346 (▼5.0% YoY)
Sales (Feb): 1,491 (▼3.2% YoY)
Active Listings: 7,397 (▼5.3% YoY)
MOI: 4.96 → Buyer-Leaning
Average Days on Market (YTD): 40 (▲17.6% YoY)
Condo Sales (YTD): 733 (▼11.7% YoY)
Condo Avg Price (YTD): $663,984 (▼8.4% YoY)
What this means:If you are buying a freehold in Toronto right now, do not assume you have unlimited time or leverage. The right house in the right neighbourhood is still drawing competition. If you are buying a condo, you are in a different market entirely, one with options, room to negotiate, and sellers who have been waiting long enough to be realistic. If you are selling a condo and still priced at 2023 levels, February's numbers are your answer. The market has spoken and it has been speaking for a while..
📍 Mississauga Snapshot: One of the Only Bright Spots
While most of the GTA posted sales declines, Mississauga quietly grew its transaction volume by 3.6% year-over-year. It is the only major region in this report where more homes sold in February 2026 than February 2025. That is not a coincidence. It is what a market looks like when prices have corrected enough, down 8.4% year-over-year, to bring genuine buyers back off the fence.
Average Price (YTD): $953,840 (▼8.4% YoY)
Sales (Feb): 345 (▲3.6% YoY)
Active Listings: 1,748 (▲3.1% YoY)
MOI: 5.07 → Buyer-Leaning
Average Days on Market (YTD): 40 (▲17.6% YoY)
Condo Sales (YTD): 96 (▼5.0% YoY)
Condo Avg Price (YTD): $514,936 (▼11.4% YoY)
What this means: Mississauga is showing the rest of the GTA what a price correction actually does when it goes deep enough. Sales go up. Not because the market is hot, but because the math finally works for buyers who have been waiting. At a condo average of $514,936, down 11.4% year-over-year, Mississauga is offering some of the most compelling entry-level numbers in the region. Sellers who got ahead of the correction are closing deals. The ones still anchored to 2024 pricing are watching those buyers go next door.
📍 Brampton Snapshot: Sales Are Back But Prices Still Declining
Brampton posted the strongest sales rebound in the entire GTA this month, up 16.2% year-over-year. To put that in context, every other major region either declined or posted modest single-digit gains. Brampton buyers came back in February, and they came back with purpose.
Average Price (YTD): $885,575 (▼9.6% YoY)
Sales (Feb): 309 (▲16.2% YoY)
Active Listings: 1,581 (▼1.1% YoY)
MOI: 5.12 → Buyer-Leaning
Average Days on Market (YTD): 39 (▲30.0% YoY)
Condo Sales (YTD): 18 (▲20.0% YoY)
Condo Avg Price (YTD): $481,833 (▲2.3% YoY)
What this means: A 16.2% jump in sales alongside a 9.6% drop in average price is not a contradiction, it is a value market functioning exactly as it should. Buyers are not returning to Brampton because confidence is back. They are returning because the price is right. The condo segment is also worth watching closely: prices ticked up 2.3% year-over-year, a small move but the only meaningful condo price increase in this entire report. Whether that holds as more inventory comes to market is the question, but it is a signal that the floor may be forming in Brampton's condo segment before anywhere else in the GTA.
📍 Oakville Snapshot: Luxury Moves But At a Discount
Oakville's headline sales number, up 9.1% year-over-year, is interesting. But the real story is buried in the condo data. Condo sales in Oakville jumped 61.9% year-over-year in February. That is not a rounding error. That is buyers making a significant and deliberate move into Oakville's condo market while prices are down 10.7%..
Average Price (YTD): $1,327,632 (▼8.2% YoY)
Sales (Feb): 156 (▲9.1% YoY)
Active Listings: 892 (▼5.6% YoY)
MOI: 5.72 → Buyer Advantage
Average Days on Market (YTD): 39 (▲25.8% YoY)
Condo Sales (YTD): 34 (▲61.9% YoY)
Condo Avg Price (YTD): $600,115 (▼10.7% YoY)
What this means: A 61.9% increase in condo sales while prices are down nearly 11% is a textbook example of buyers absorbing a corrected market. Oakville condos at a $600K average, in a town where the overall average sits at $1.3M, represent genuine relative value for buyers who want the Oakville lifestyle without the freehold price tag. For luxury freehold sellers, the picture is different. Nearly six months of inventory, days on market up 25.8%, and buyers who are informed and patient. The deals getting done are the ones where sellers have accepted that 2024 is not coming back this spring.
📍 York Region Snapshot: Prices Down, Days Up, Patience Required
York Region's overall numbers look soft but unremarkable until you look at the condo segment. Condo prices in York Region are down 13.2% year-over-year, the largest year-over-year condo price decline of any region in this report. Combined with an 11.1% drop in condo sales and days on market up 31.3%, York Region's condo market is under more pressure than anywhere else in the GTA right now.
Average Price (YTD): $1,122,835 (▼8.7% YoY)
Sales (Feb): 683 (▼7.3% YoY)
Active Listings: 3,704 (▲1.6% YoY)
MOI: 5.42 → Buyer-Leaning
Average Days on Market (YTD): 42 (▲31.3% YoY)
Condo Sales (YTD): 144 (▼11.1% YoY)
Condo Avg Price (YTD): $571,250 (▼13.2% YoY)
What this means: York Region has the longest days on market of any region in this report at 42 days, and the steepest condo price decline at 13.2%. That combination tells you the market is moving slowly and pricing mistakes are being punished hard. For investors with a long horizon, a 13.2% price correction in a region with strong long-term fundamentals is worth paying attention to. For sellers, extended time on market is not just inconvenient, it erodes perceived value and negotiating position. Getting ahead of the market on price is not optional in York Region right now..
📍 Durham Region Snapshot: The GTA’S Last Balanced Market
Durham is the only region in this report not sitting in buyer-leaning territory. At 3.63 months of inventory, it is the closest thing to a neutral market left in the GTA, and the data backs that up. Days on market sit at just 32, the lowest of any region by a significant margin, and while sales are down 18.2% year-over-year, prices have only pulled back 7.3%.
Average Price (YTD): $835,530 (▼7.3% YoY)
Sales (Feb): 454 (▼18.2% YoY)
Active Listings: 1,650 (▲4.4% YoY)
MOI: 3.63 → Balanced Market
Average Days on Market (YTD): 32 (▲28.0% YoY)
Condo Sales (YTD): 31 (▼35.4% YoY)
Condo Avg Price (YTD): $518,810 (▼6.7% YoY)
What this means: Durham's 32-day average days on market versus York Region's 42 days tells you everything about the relative health of these two markets. Homes are moving faster in Durham than anywhere else in the GTA, and the balanced inventory means sellers are not giving away the house to get a deal done. The condo segment is the one weak spot, with sales down 35.4%, the steepest condo sales decline in this report. But at a $518K condo average with only 3.63 months of inventory overall, Durham remains the most accessible and competitive market in the GTA for buyers who have been losing out elsewhere.
What Does This Mean for 2026 Buyers and Sellers?
This month's data is not a story about the market going up or down. It is a story about a market breaking into pieces and each piece behaving differently.
Freeholds in Toronto are drawing multiple offers. Brampton just posted the biggest sales surge in the GTA. Oakville condos saw a 61.9% jump in transactions. Mississauga is the only major region where more homes sold this February than last. Meanwhile York Region condos are down 13.2% in price, Durham condo sales fell 35.4%, and the GTA-wide condo market is absorbing 20,000 new units this year with nowhere near enough demand to keep up.
The buyers coming off the sidelines right now are not doing it out of confidence. They are doing it out of math. The regions and product types where the correction has gone deepest are the ones seeing activity first. That is how recoveries actually start, quietly, in the places nobody is watching, before the headlines catch up.
📉 For buyers: the window is not uniform across the GTA. In some pockets you still have time and leverage. In others, February just told you that the floor is forming and the competition is coming back. Know your market, know your product type, and stop waiting for a signal that may have already been sent.
📈 For sellers: February was a tale of two outcomes. Correctly priced, well-presented properties moved. Everything else sat. The homes collecting 40-plus days on market are not victims of a bad market. They are victims of a pricing strategy built on hope instead of data. The spring market is coming. Whether it works for you or against you depends entirely on what you decide to do in the next 30 days.
If you want to understand exactly where your property or your search sits in this split market, let's talk. Not a pitch. Just a real conversation about what the numbers mean for your specific situation.
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