September 2026 Toronto Real Estate: Back to School. Back to Work. Back to… Waiting?

September was supposed to kick off Toronto's fall real estate market. Instead, buyers seemed in no particular hurry.

After a sleepy August, active listings across the GTA climbed from 24,482 to 26,131 in September. Sales, however, barely moved, slipping from 5,057 to 5,040. Compared with September 2025, sales were down 9%, while the average selling price declined 5.1% to $1,006,409. Not exactly the fall-market comeback everyone was hoping for.

But personally, I think September's numbers deserve a little context. With Toronto students not returning to school until September 8, summer effectively spilled into the first week of the month. By the time families settled into their routines, vacations wrapped up and everyone got back into work mode, we were already into the second week of September. In my opinion, that left us with a much shorter fall real estate market than the calendar suggests.

Does that explain the slower sales? Not entirely. Buyers are still cautious, affordability remains a challenge and economic uncertainty hasn't disappeared. But I wouldn't write off the fall market based on September alone. Real estate decisions take time, and October's numbers should give us a better indication of whether buyers are genuinely returning or continuing to sit on the sidelines.

September's Market in One Sentence

More homes to choose from, fewer buyers making moves, and a fall market still finding its footing.

September brought more choice for GTA buyers, but not necessarily more activity. While active listings increased from August, they remained 9.3% below September 2025, and new listings fell 14.4% year over year to 16,500. With sales barely moving, months of inventory rose from 4.84 in August to 5.18 in September, giving buyers more room to negotiate and sellers more competition for attention.

Interestingly, the average selling price increased by approximately $13,000 from August, but the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's Market Watch showed a slight month-over-month decline in seasonally adjusted prices. In other words, we're not seeing convincing evidence of a price recovery just yet. As I discussed in my August 2026 Toronto real estate market report, the real question heading into fall was whether buyers would return. September suggests they're still taking their time.

Condo Buyers Are Still Skipping Class

The GTA condo market continues to struggle. September recorded 1,316 condo sales, down 7.8% year over year, while the average price fell 7.7% to $605,257. Toronto condos followed a similar trend, with 884 sales (down 5.5%) and an average price of $640,248 (down 6.1%).

The weakness extends beyond Toronto. Condo prices declined 11.3% in Mississauga, 10.4% in Brampton, 12.4% in York Region and 10.3% in Durham. Oakville was the exception, with prices up 2%, although just 29 sales make that figure worth taking with a grain of salt.

For buyers, particularly those entering the market for the first time, this creates opportunities to negotiate and explore Toronto neighbourhoods where their budget can go further. But price isn't everything. Maintenance fees, building finances and future repairs can quickly change the equation, which is why understanding Toronto condo fee red flags matters just as much as negotiating a good purchase price.

Condo Buyers Were Also Out of Office

The GTA condo market did not escape the August slowdown. A total of 1,330 condo apartments sold across the GTA, down 2.6% from last year. The average condo price fell 3.6% to $617,593.

Inside the City of Toronto, condo sales were nearly unchanged. There were 885 transactions, down just 0.2%, while the average price declined 2.1% to $651,648.

That is not a booming condo recovery, but it is also not a fresh collapse. Sales activity held surprisingly steady despite the usual August slowdown, while the annual price decline remained relatively contained.

Buyers still have leverage, particularly where several similar units are competing in the same building. Maintenance fees, layouts, parking and building reputation matter more than ever. So does whether the “one plus den” contains a den, or simply a slightly ambitious corner.

The strongest Toronto condos are selling. The generic, overpriced and functionally confusing ones are still spending plenty of quality time online.

📍 GTA-Wide Scoreboard: The Fall Market Asked for More Time

August’s 2.1% sales decline looks very different beside a 14.1% drop in new listings and an 11.3% decline in active inventory.

Demand softened slightly. Supply packed a suitcase.

• Average Sale Price (Aug): $993,410 (▼2.7% YoY)

• Average Price (YTD): $1,027,505 (▼4.8% YoY)

• Sales (Aug): 5,057 (▼2.1% YoY)

• Active Listings: 24,482 (▼11.3% YoY)

• MOI: 4.84 → Balanced

• Average Days on Market (YTD): 32 (▲14.3% YoY)

• Condo Sales (Aug): 1,330 (▼2.6% YoY)

• Condo Avg. Price (Aug): $617,593 (▼3.6% YoY)

What this means: Buyers still have negotiating power across much of the GTA, but they have fewer options than they did last summer. Well-priced homes can attract attention because there is less fresh competition. Overpriced homes can still sit, because fewer listings do not automatically make buyers less observant.

Balanced does not mean every buyer and seller receives an equal participation trophy. It means the outcome depends heavily on the actual property.

📍 Toronto Snapshot: More Choice, Less Rush

Toronto followed the broader GTA trend in September. Sales declined 5.4% year over year, while the average selling price fell 5.2% to $1,034,320. Active listings were also 5.7% lower than last September, but increased from August, pushing months of inventory to 5.09.

• Average Sale Price (Sep): $1,034,320 (▼5.2% YoY)

• Average Price (YTD): $1,041,416 (▼4.4% YoY)

• Sales (Sep): 1,937 (▼5.4% YoY)

• Active Listings: 9,865 (▼5.7% YoY)

• MOI: 5.09 → Balanced, Buyer-Leaning

• Average Days on Market (YTD): 32 (▲10.3% YoY)

• Condo Sales (Sep): 884 (▼5.5% YoY)

• Condo Avg. Price (Sep): $640,248 (▼6.1% YoY)

What this means: Toronto buyers have more breathing room than they did through much of the summer, particularly in the condo market, but conditions remain extremely property-specific. A great house on a great street that is priced properly can still attract competition. A mediocre listing priced as though buyers should simply be grateful for the opportunity to see it can sit.

Toronto isn't one market, and five months of inventory doesn't mean every property comes with a discount. Buyers have leverage, but the good listings still know they're good. For anyone wondering where that leverage might be strongest, I've broken down seven signs a Toronto home may sell below its asking price, including the listing clues that can reveal a seller's willingness to negotiate.

📍 Mississauga Snapshot: Condos Need Extra Credit

Mississauga remained buyer-friendly in September. Sales fell 5.8%, active listings declined 9.6% and the average selling price dropped 4.2% to $929,600. The bigger story continues to be condos, where the average price fell 11.3% year over year to just over $500,000.

• Average Sale Price (Sep): $929,600 (▼4.2% YoY)

• Average Price (YTD): $952,527 (▼5.8% YoY)

• Sales (Sep): 468 (▼5.8% YoY)

• Active Listings: 2,408 (▼9.6% YoY)

• MOI: 5.15 → Balanced, Buyer-Leaning

• Average Days on Market (YTD): 34 (▲13.3% YoY)

• Condo Sales (Sep): 122 (▼6.9% YoY)

• Condo Avg. Price (Sep): $500,192 (▼11.3% YoY)

What this means: Mississauga buyers remain extremely price-sensitive, particularly in the condo market. An 11.3% annual condo-price decline creates opportunity for buyers, but it also means sellers are competing in a market where value is being scrutinized closely. Transactions are happening, but buyers are deciding what a property is worth rather than accepting what sellers hoped it would be worth.

📍 Brampton Snapshot: Still Doing Its Own Assignment

Oakville continues to behave differently from much of the GTA. The year-to-date average price remains 0.9% higher than last year, even though September's monthly average fell 2.3% to $1,365,169. Sales declined 16.9%, while active listings fell an even steeper 18.2%.

• Average Sale Price (Sep): $1,365,169 (▼2.3% YoY)

• Average Price (YTD): $1,440,232 (▲0.9% YoY)

• Sales (Sep): 162 (▼16.9% YoY)

• Sales (YTD): 1,911 (▲1.5% YoY)

• Active Listings: 1,073 (▼18.2% YoY)

• MOI: 6.62 → Buyer-Friendly

• Average Days on Market (YTD): 34 (▲9.7% YoY)

• Condo Sales (Sep): 29 (▼17.1% YoY)

• Condo Avg. Price (Sep): $699,379 (▲2.0% YoY)

What this means: Oakville's positive year-to-date price number continues to stand out, but 6.62 months of inventory tells us buyers currently have considerable choice. In a higher-priced market with fewer transactions, changes in the mix of homes sold can also move the average substantially. Buyers shouldn't assume every property is discounted, and sellers shouldn't assume Oakville's resilient annual average automatically applies to their home.

📍 Oakville Snapshot: Two Stories One Market

Oakville’s August numbers tell two different stories. The year-to-date average price remained 1.2% higher than last year, but the August average fell 6.3%. Year-to-date sales were also up 3.7%, even though monthly sales slipped 3.3%.

This is exactly why one month of average-price data needs context, especially in a higher-priced market. A small change in the number of luxury properties sold can move the average considerably. What is harder to ignore is the 23% drop in active listings, which has made Oakville noticeably tighter than it was last August.

• Average Sale Price (Aug): $1,324,472 (▼6.3% YoY)

• Average Price (YTD): $1,446,958 (▲1.2% YoY)

• Sales (Aug): 203 (▼3.3% YoY)

• Sales (YTD): 1,750 (▲3.7% YoY)

• Active Listings: 957 (▼23.0% YoY)

• MOI: 4.71 → Balanced, Significantly Tighter YoY

• Average Days on Market (YTD): 34 (▲9.7% YoY)

• Condo Sales (Aug): 35 (▼18.6% YoY)

• Condo Avg. Price (Aug): $705,448 (▼8.1% YoY)

What This Means: Oakville buyers have fewer homes to choose from, but they are not bidding indiscriminately. The strongest properties can still command attention, while homes with pricing, condition or location concerns may sit. Sellers should not allow the positive year-to-date average to create false confidence about an individual property. Buyers should also be careful not to interpret the lower August average as a universal discount. In Oakville, the property mix matters enormously.

📍 York Region Snapshot: Condos Take the Hardest Mark

York Region sales fell 13% in September, while active listings declined 7.2%. The average selling price dropped 3.7% to $1,136,650, and months of inventory increased to 5.79. Once again, the condo segment was noticeably weaker, with sales down 18.5% and the average price falling 12.4%.

• Average Sale Price (Sep): $1,136,650 (▼3.7% YoY)

• Average Price (YTD): $1,153,588 (▼6.1% YoY)

• Sales (Sep): 893 (▼13.0% YoY)

• Sales (YTD): 8,488 (▲3.3% YoY)

• Active Listings: 5,168 (▼7.2% YoY)

• MOI: 5.79 → Buyer-Friendly

• Average Days on Market (YTD): 33 (▲10.0% YoY)

• Condo Sales (Sep): 167 (▼18.5% YoY)

• Condo Avg. Price (Sep): $564,236 (▼12.4% YoY)

What this means: York Region remains balanced overall, but the gap between freehold and condo conditions is becoming harder to ignore. Buyers have room to negotiate across the region, but condo buyers in particular are shopping in a market where prices have corrected substantially. For sellers, "York Region" is far too broad to be useful on its own. Municipality, property type and direct competition matter much more than the regional headline.

📍 Durham Region Snapshot: Affordable, But Not Immune

Durham recorded one of September's sharpest declines in activity. Sales fell 20.7% year over year, while the average selling price declined 5.8% to $828,141. Active listings were down only 4.2%, leaving the region with 4.75 months of inventory.

• Average Sale Price (Sep): $828,141 (▼5.8% YoY)

• Average Price (YTD): $838,406 (▼6.1% YoY)

• Sales (Sep): 552 (▼20.7% YoY)

• Sales (YTD): 5,720 (▼9.8% YoY)

• Active Listings: 2,622 (▼4.2% YoY)

• MOI: 4.75 → Balanced

• Average Days on Market (YTD): 27 (▲17.4% YoY)

• Condo Sales (Sep): 38 (No Change YoY)

• Condo Avg. Price (Sep): $440,829 (▼10.3% YoY)

What this means: Durham remains one of the more affordable ownership options in the GTA, but affordability hasn't insulated it from buyer hesitation. The 20.7% decline in sales is significant, particularly when active inventory fell by much less. For buyers willing to look east, softer prices can create opportunity. Sellers, meanwhile, are competing for a noticeably smaller pool of active purchasers.

TheForecast: Did the Fall Market Miss the Bell?

September answered one of the big questions left over from August. Inventory did come back after summer, but buyers didn't return with the same enthusiasm. GTA sales were virtually unchanged from August, active listings climbed above 26,000 and months of inventory moved back above five. At the same time, prices remain below last year and the seasonally adjusted data show that they edged slightly lower again from August.

But I'm not ready to write off the fall market just yet. Between the late start to the school year, the Labour Day long weekend and the time it takes buyers to get back into their routines, September may not have been a particularly useful test of fall demand. October should tell us more about whether buyers are genuinely returning or whether economic uncertainty is keeping them on the sidelines.

The regional numbers also show why broad GTA headlines only get you so far. Brampton has dramatically fewer listings but lower prices. Oakville's year-to-date average remains positive despite more than six months of inventory. Toronto is hovering around five months of inventory, while Durham has fewer than five but suffered a 20.7% drop in sales. The condo market is softer almost everywhere, but even there the degree of weakness varies considerably by location.

There isn't one Toronto real estate market right now. There are neighbourhoods, buildings and property types moving at very different speeds. Some homes are still selling quickly because they're desirable, scarce and priced correctly. Others are sitting because buyers have enough options to simply move on.

📉What this means for buyers: If you've been waiting for a market where you can take your time, negotiate and include reasonable conditions, September delivered. More than five months of GTA inventory and softer prices give buyers leverage, particularly on stale listings, condos with direct competition and properties that need work.

But remember, the sale price is only one part of the equation. Before deciding whether the market is finally affordable, understand how much income, down payment and closing costs you need to buy a home in Toronto in 2026. Just don't confuse patience with paralysis. Good properties can still sell, even in a slower market.

📈 What this means for sellers: Buyers may be taking their time, but the first few weeks of a listing still matter. September proved that lower inventory doesn't automatically rescue an unrealistic price. Know your competition, price against current comparable sales and make the property worth seeing.

If you're preparing to list, it's worth understanding why Toronto homes aren't selling in 2026 and how pricing affects your results. Buyers are watching the market closely, and they've become very good at spotting a listing that's hoping rather than pricing.

The fall market is here. The buyers are watching. They just haven't made their move yet.

Thinking of Making a Move?

Whether you're wondering if this is finally the window to buy, trying to decide whether to sell into a slower fall market or simply watching from the sidelines yourself, let's look at the numbers that actually apply to your move.

No pressure. No generic sales pitch. Just a clear strategy based on what's happening in your market.

Get in touch and let's talk Toronto real estate

Vanessa Copeland | Toronto Real Estate Agent | Royal LePage Signature Realty

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, September 2026 Market Watch. Regional statistics are based on the September 2026 market reports. Year-over-year comparisons refer to September 2025 unless otherwise noted.