America got its blue wave, Toronto's housing market finally showed a few signs of life, and the Bank of Canada decided to raise interest rates. Because apparently, we can't have nice things all at once.
October delivered a much-needed change of pace for Toronto real estate. After a sluggish September, GTA home sales increased, average prices edged higher and inventory tightened. Nothing resembling a housing boom, but enough movement to suggest buyers were beginning to reconsider their plans before the year wrapped up.
Then came October 28, when the Bank of Canada increased its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.50%, its first hike since July 2023. Just as the housing market appeared to be finding its footing, inflation and borrowing costs returned to the spotlight.
And if that wasn't enough economic drama, November's U.S. midterm elections delivered a Democratic blue wave, with the party winning control of both chambers of Congress. For Canada, that raises some interesting questions about tariffs, trade negotiations and economic confidence heading into 2027.
So, we've got political blue waves, economic red flags and a housing market that might finally be approaching a green light. But is Toronto real estate actually turning a corner, or are we getting a little too excited about one decent month?
October's Market in One Sentence
Toronto's housing market showed signs of improvement in October, with stronger monthly sales, slightly higher prices and tightening inventory, but falling year-over-year values and the Bank of Canada's latest rate hike are keeping buyers cautious.
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), 5,603 homes sold across the GTA in October 2026, an 11.2% increase from September's 5,040 transactions. The average selling price also climbed 1.8% month over month to $1,024,108, while months of inventory declined from 5.18 to approximately 4.48.
But before anyone declares a comeback, October sales were still down 7.9% compared with last year, average prices fell 2.7% and new listings declined 11.9%. The tighter market reflects both improving monthly activity and fewer homes coming up for sale.
As we discussed in my September 2026 Toronto real estate market report, buyers entered the fall with plenty of hesitation. October suggests some are finally ready to act, although they're still being selective about what they're willing to pay. The market is stabilizing, not suddenly booming.
🚩 The Bank of Canada Raised Interest Rates. There Goes the Easy Recovery Story.
Just as Toronto's housing market started showing some life, the Bank of Canada decided to complicate things. On October 28, the Bank increased its overnight policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.50%, its first increase since July 2023, as inflation pressures persisted.
For buyers, higher borrowing costs can offset some of the savings created by lower home prices. A quarter-point increase on a $500,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years could add roughly $70 to the monthly payment, depending on the mortgage terms and interest rate. Variable-rate borrowers may feel the effects sooner, while fixed mortgage rates respond more directly to bond yields.
Because the increase came at the end of October, its impact on buyer confidence may not become clear until November or December. With the Bank's next announcement scheduled for December 9, the direction of interest rates remains an important factor heading into 2027. Lower home prices are encouraging, but affordability is still a moving target.
🌊 Blue Waves: Could the U.S. Midterms Bring Better News for Canada?
The November 3 U.S. midterm elections delivered Democratic control of both chambers of Congress, potentially changing the political dynamics surrounding American trade policy. For Canada, the bigger question is whether that shift could eventually reduce uncertainty around tariffs and improve confidence among businesses and consumers.
A more predictable trading relationship would be welcome for Canadian employers, investors and households, particularly after ongoing trade tensions. But political change doesn't guarantee immediate economic change, and the U.S. president still retains considerable authority over trade decisions.
For Toronto real estate, the connection is indirect but important. Employment security and economic confidence influence whether households feel comfortable making major purchases. If trade conditions improve, some sidelined buyers could regain confidence heading into 2027. Just remember that October's housing statistics predate the U.S. election, so any potential benefits belong to the forecast, not the explanation for last month's sales.
Condo Buyers Are Still Seeing Red
While the broader GTA housing market showed signs of improvement, condos continued to struggle. Prices remained under pressure across several regions, including Toronto, Mississauga and York Region, as buyers weighed lower purchase prices against mortgage costs, maintenance fees and an abundance of competing listings.
For first-time buyers, that creates opportunities to negotiate on properties that might have been unaffordable a few years ago. But a discounted condo isn't automatically a good investment, particularly when maintenance fees, reserve fund contributions or potential special assessments can significantly increase ownership costs. I've explored those risks in my guide to Toronto condo fees and red flags in 2026.
For sellers, the message is equally straightforward: buyers have options, and a nice kitchen or rooftop terrace won't compensate for unrealistic pricing. Until condo demand improves more consistently, competitive pricing and a clear understanding of building-specific conditions remain essential.
📍 GTA-Wide Scoreboard: The Fall Market Finally Found Its Pulse
September left us wondering whether Toronto's fall real estate market had forgotten to show up. October finally delivered a little movement, with sales climbing month over month, average prices edging higher and available inventory tightening. But with both sales and prices still below last year's levels, the market isn't celebrating a comeback just yet. Think of it as a pulse check rather than a clean bill of health.
Average Sale Price (Oct): $1,024,108 (▼ 2.7% YoY)
Average Price (YTD): $1,025,156 (▼ 4.6% YoY)
Sales (Oct): 5,603 (▼ 7.9% YoY)
Active Listings: 25,098 (▼ 10.0% YoY)
Months of Inventory: 4.48 → Balanced Market
Average Days on Market (YTD): 32 (▲ 10.3% YoY)
Condo Sales (Oct): 1,385
Condo Average Price (Oct): $621,400
What this means: October's improvement suggests the GTA housing market may be finding a more sustainable balance between supply and demand. Buyers continue to benefit from lower prices and negotiating opportunities, but declining inventory means those advantages aren't necessarily permanent. If sales continue to strengthen while listings remain limited, competition could gradually increase in certain neighbourhoods and property types. For now, this remains a balanced market where realistic pricing and informed decisions matter more than trying to predict the next dramatic shift.
📍 Toronto Snapshot: More Choice, Less Panic, Still Plenty of Negotiating
Toronto's housing market finally showed a little more enthusiasm in October, although nobody's lining up around the block for every new listing. The city's average selling price remained above $1 million, and inventory moved further into balanced territory. But the difference between a desirable freehold home and an average downtown condo remains significant. Buyers are still willing to compete for the right property, provided the price makes sense, while listings that miss the mark can spend weeks waiting for someone to fall in love with the staging.
Average Sale Price (Oct): $1,075,627
Average Price (YTD): $1,045,297 (▼ 3.8% YoY)
Sales (Oct): 2,184
Active Listings: 9,526
Months of Inventory: 4.36 → Balanced Market
Average Days on Market (YTD): 32 (▲ 10.3% YoY)
Condo Sales (Oct): 949
Condo Average Price (Oct): $659,214
What this means: Toronto buyers continue to have opportunities, particularly among properties that have been sitting on the market or have undergone price reductions. However, the most desirable homes in established neighbourhoods can still attract competition, making it important to evaluate each listing individually rather than relying on citywide averages. For sellers, October's improvement is encouraging, but buyers remain highly sensitive to pricing. A strong presentation and realistic asking price are still essential if you want to stand out.
📍 Mississauga Snapshot: The Condo Market Is Still Waiting for Its Invitation
Mississauga's housing market continues to offer a little something for everyone, provided that something includes patience and realistic expectations. While the broader market remains balanced, condos are still having a particularly difficult time convincing buyers to commit. With plenty of comparable units competing for attention, buyers can afford to compare layouts, maintenance fees and asking prices before making a decision. Apparently, a view of the highway and a gym membership disguised as a maintenance fee aren't quite the selling features they used to be.
Average Sale Price (Oct): $927,521
Average Price (YTD): $949,769 (▼ 5.5% YoY)
Sales (Oct): 508
Active Listings: 2,342
Months of Inventory: 4.61 → Balanced Market
Average Days on Market (YTD): 34 (▲ 13.3% YoY)
Condo Sales (Oct): 128
Condo Average Price (Oct): $504,685
What this means: Mississauga buyers have meaningful negotiating opportunities, particularly in the condominium market, where similar units can compete directly against one another. However, price reductions alone don't necessarily indicate good value. Building condition, maintenance fees and long-term ownership costs remain important considerations. For sellers, the most effective strategy is to understand the competition within their building and neighbourhood rather than relying on previous peak-market sales.
📍 Brampton Snapshot: Falling Prices Meet Shrinking Inventory
Brampton is delivering one of October's more interesting contradictions. Home prices remain substantially lower than they were a year ago, yet available inventory has tightened enough to push the market below four months of supply. That's generally associated with seller-leaning conditions, which might sound surprising given the amount of price pressure Brampton has experienced throughout 2026. But housing markets don't change direction overnight, and tighter supply doesn't automatically erase months of cautious demand.
Average Sale Price (Oct): $825,183
Average Price (YTD): $875,916 (▼ 6.9% YoY)
Sales (Oct): 435
Active Listings: 1,617
Months of Inventory: 3.72 → Seller-Leaning Market
Average Days on Market (YTD): 31 (▲ 10.7% YoY)
Condo Sales (Oct): 23
Condo Average Price (Oct): $367,515
What this means: Brampton buyers have benefited from significant price adjustments over the past year, but shrinking inventory suggests they shouldn't assume every seller is desperate to negotiate. Well-priced properties may begin attracting more interest if available supply continues to decline. For sellers, however, October's tighter conditions aren't permission to return to peak-market expectations. The market still needs to demonstrate stronger, sustained demand before a meaningful recovery can be declared. Condo figures should also be interpreted cautiously because the relatively small number of transactions can exaggerate price movements.
📍 Oakville Snapshot: Premium Prices, Patient Buyers
Oakville continues to prove that having a bigger budget doesn't necessarily mean having a bigger appetite for overpaying. With an average selling price comfortably above $1 million and more than five months of inventory, buyers have time to evaluate their options, particularly in the higher-end market. Sellers hoping that an Oakville postal code alone will justify an ambitious asking price may discover that today's buyers are considerably more selective than they were a few years ago. Luxury, apparently, now comes with a comparative market analysis.
Average Sale Price (Oct): $1,383,011
Average Price (YTD): $1,435,680 (▼ 1.2% YoY)
Sales (Oct): 191
Active Listings: 1,025
Months of Inventory: 5.37 → Balanced, Buyer-Leaning
Average Days on Market (YTD): 34 (▲ 6.3% YoY)
Condo Sales (Oct): 34
Condo Average Price (Oct): $677,274
What this means: Oakville buyers have more room to negotiate than those in some of the tighter GTA markets, particularly when considering higher-priced properties that have spent longer on the market. Location, property condition and presentation still matter, but sellers need to understand that buyers are comparing value carefully. For anyone planning to sell, a strong pricing strategy is essential because the smaller pool of qualified buyers can make an overpriced listing especially difficult to move.
📍 York Region Snapshot: Buyers Are Still Taking Their Sweet Time
York Region's housing market remains a balancing act between improved affordability and buyers who aren't particularly interested in rushing. With average prices still below last year's levels and inventory sitting comfortably in balanced territory, buyers have opportunities across communities such as Vaughan, Richmond Hill and Markham. But York Region covers a large and diverse market, and the experience of buying a detached home in an established neighbourhood can be very different from negotiating on a condo surrounded by competing listings.
Average Sale Price (Oct): $1,142,789
Average Price (YTD): $1,152,203 (▼ 6.3% YoY)
Sales (Oct): 1,038
Active Listings: 4,932
Months of Inventory: 4.75 → Balanced Market
Average Days on Market (YTD): 33 (▲ 10.0% YoY)
Condo Sales (Oct): 163
Condo Average Price (Oct): $549,951
What this means: York Region buyers continue to have negotiating opportunities, particularly when considering properties that have undergone price reductions or spent extended periods on the market. However, demand remains highly dependent on location, property type and price point. Sellers need to evaluate recent comparable sales within their immediate neighbourhood rather than relying on regional averages, while buyers should be prepared to act when a genuinely well-priced property becomes available.
📍 Durham Region Snapshot: More Affordable, But Buyers Aren't Rushing
Durham continues to attract buyers looking for more space and a lower purchase price than they might find in Toronto, but October's numbers show that affordability alone isn't enough to generate stronger demand. Even with average prices below $800,000 for the month, sales remained weaker than a year ago. Between mortgage payments, property taxes, commuting costs and the general expense of owning a home, buyers are discovering that moving farther from Toronto doesn't automatically make the financial equation simple.
Average Sale Price (Oct): $793,024
Average Price (YTD): $834,079 (▼ 6.1% YoY)
Sales (Oct): 589
Active Listings: 2,619
Months of Inventory: 4.45 → Balanced Market
Average Days on Market (YTD): 27 (▲ 17.4% YoY)
Condo Sales (Oct): 33
Condo Average Price (Oct): $466,698
What this means: Durham remains attractive for buyers prioritizing additional space and comparatively lower purchase prices, but total ownership costs should remain central to the decision. Weaker sales activity means buyers may find opportunities to negotiate, particularly on homes that have been sitting. Sellers, meanwhile, need to recognize that buyers are comparing the overall financial benefits of living in Durham rather than assuming they'll automatically pay a premium for a larger property or backyard.
Where Do GTA Buyers Have the Most Choice?
Months of inventory by region | October 2026
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), October 2026 Market Watch. Months of inventory = active listings divided by monthly sales.
The Forecast: Three Possible Paths for Toronto Real Estate in 2027
October gave Toronto's housing market a little momentum, but one stronger month doesn't establish a recovery. Heading into 2027, the direction of borrowing costs, available inventory and consumer confidence will determine whether that momentum continues.
Rather than pretending we know exactly where prices will go, there are three scenarios worth watching.
Scenario 1: Interest Rates Stabilize and Buyers Return
If inflation begins to ease and the Bank of Canada can hold rates steady, buyers may gain the confidence to move forward with purchases they've been postponing. Combined with lower prices than previous market peaks, stable borrowing costs could encourage more first-time buyers and move-up purchasers to re-enter the market.
If inventory continues declining at the same time, desirable properties could become more competitive. That wouldn't necessarily produce a dramatic increase in GTA-wide prices, but it could reduce negotiating opportunities in neighbourhoods where supply is already limited.
Scenario 2: Interest Rates Rise Again
If inflation remains persistent and the Bank raises rates further, affordability could come under renewed pressure. Buyers may reduce their budgets, postpone purchases or shift toward more affordable property types.
Condos and higher-priced homes could remain particularly sensitive to financing costs, while sellers may need to adjust their expectations to reflect what qualified buyers can actually afford.
For buyers with stable finances, this scenario could create additional negotiating opportunities, although higher borrowing costs would need to be factored into the equation.
Scenario 3: Inventory Keeps Falling, Even Without Stronger Demand
This is the scenario I find particularly interesting. October's inventory declined partly because fewer homeowners listed their properties, not simply because buyers suddenly rushed back.
If new listings continue to fall, the market could tighten even without a major improvement in sales. That might help support prices in certain neighbourhoods, but it wouldn't necessarily indicate a healthy recovery in demand.
My outlook: I expect Toronto's housing market to remain highly segmented heading into 2027. Buyers may continue to find opportunities in the condo market and among overpriced listings, while desirable freehold homes with limited competition could see firmer pricing. The biggest mistake would be assuming that a change in the GTA average automatically applies to every neighbourhood or property type.
📉What this means for buyers: If you've been waiting for lower prices, greater negotiating power and more time to make informed decisions, 2026 has delivered some meaningful opportunities. But the October interest rate hike is a reminder that affordability isn't determined by purchase price alone. Financing costs, property taxes, maintenance fees and other ownership expenses all need to be considered before deciding whether a home fits your budget.
Buyers should focus on recent comparable sales, property condition, listing history and the seller's motivation rather than trying to predict exactly when prices will reach their lowest point. In a balanced market, there may be opportunities to negotiate on price, closing dates and conditions, but desirable homes can still attract competition.
For a closer look at the financial side of buying, I've broken down how much income you need to buy a home in Toronto in 2026. If you're just beginning your search, my guide to the best Toronto neighbourhoods for first-time buyers is another useful place to start. The goal isn't to time the market perfectly. It's to make a purchase that works for your finances, lifestyle and long-term plans.
📈 What this means for sellers: October's improvement is encouraging for sellers, but buyers remain informed, cautious and highly sensitive to price. A stronger month of sales doesn't mean the market has returned to the conditions we experienced in 2021 or early 2022, when aggressive bidding and rapid price increases were common.
Today's sellers need to understand their competition, prepare their properties carefully and establish an asking price supported by recent comparable sales. Homes that are well presented and priced appropriately can still attract serious interest, but listings that enter the market with unrealistic expectations risk spending weeks online before eventually reducing their price.
I've discussed this in more detail in Why Toronto Homes Aren't Selling in 2026, because the market isn't necessarily rejecting every property. It's often rejecting the price. Buyers are also paying closer attention to what a home is genuinely worth, something I explored in my article about Toronto homes selling below the asking price.
For sellers planning a move before the end of the year or early in 2027, a thoughtful pricing and marketing strategy will be more valuable than hoping October's momentum does all the work.
Thinking of Making a Move?
Blue waves may be making headlines south of the border, but Toronto's housing market is still navigating its own red flags. October delivered some encouraging signs, although higher interest rates, persistent inflation and ongoing economic uncertainty mean a full recovery is far from guaranteed.
For buyers, there are opportunities to take advantage of improved affordability and negotiating conditions, particularly in market segments where inventory remains elevated. For sellers, success continues to depend on realistic pricing, strong presentation and understanding what today's buyers are actually willing to pay.
The green light isn't on for every property, neighbourhood or buyer. But after months of hesitation, October suggests the market may finally be moving in a more interesting direction.
Thinking about buying or selling in Toronto or the GTA? Let's review the numbers that matter for your property, neighbourhood and goals, and develop a strategy based on today's market rather than yesterday's expectations.
Connect with Vanessa Copeland | Your Home Girl
Toronto Real Estate FAQs: October 2026
Are Toronto home prices going down in 2026?
Yes, GTA home prices remained lower than a year earlier in October 2026. According to TRREB, the average GTA selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7% from October 2025, while the MLS Home Price Index benchmark declined 4.3%. However, average prices increased slightly compared with September, suggesting some month-over-month stabilization. Conditions vary considerably by neighbourhood and property type, so GTA-wide figures shouldn't be used as a substitute for a local market analysis.
Is November 2026 a good time to buy a home in Toronto?
November 2026 may offer opportunities for buyers who are financially prepared and willing to negotiate. Prices remain below last year's levels, and many sellers face competition from comparable listings. However, the Bank of Canada's October interest rate increase means borrowing costs deserve careful consideration. Rather than waiting for the perfect month, buyers should evaluate mortgage affordability, recent comparable sales, property condition and how long they expect to own the home.
Will Toronto real estate prices recover in 2027?
A recovery in 2027 is possible, but it isn't guaranteed. Stable interest rates, stronger employment confidence and declining inventory could support demand and prices. Conversely, additional rate increases or economic uncertainty could keep buyers cautious. Different parts of the GTA are also likely to recover at different speeds. Toronto's condo market, for example, may follow a different trajectory from freehold homes in established neighbourhoods where available inventory is limited.
Market data: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), October 2026 Market Watch. Economic information: Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026 rate announcement. Year-over-year comparisons refer to October 2025 unless otherwise indicated. Year-to-date figures cover January through October 2026.
